Fermi Paradox & Cyclic Universe

The Fermi paradox is the conflict between the lack of clear, obvious evidence for extraterrestrial life and various high estimates for their existence. Consider below the scientific estimates for the number of habitable planets in the known universe:

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October 29, 2020, Mountain View, CA – Thanks to new research using data from the Kepler space telescope, it’s estimated that there could be as many as 300 million potentially habitable planets in our galaxy.

In the known universe, there are estimated to be around 20 sextillion planets (that’s 2 plus 23 zeros). To make a calculation of how many habitable planets there might be then, we can take the estimate of 2.5% from the total number of planets (20 sextillion).

That comes to 200 quintillion, or 200,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Such an incomprehensibly vast number of potentially habitable planets suggests with absolute certainty the existence of life on some of them. Crunching the numbers even a conservative estimate of 'some' should be huge. We should expect a large number to develop advanced technology and some may reach the higher levels of the Kardashev scale.

(The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy it is able to use. The measure was proposed by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in 1964. Earth is currently approaching Type I).

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Kardashev Scale

Type I

A civilization "close to the level presently attained on Earth, with energy consumption at ≈4×1019 erg/sec" (4×1012 watts).[8] A Type I civilization is usually defined as one that can harness all the energy that reaches its home planet from its parent star (for Earth, this value is around 2×1017 watts), which is about four orders of magnitude higher than the amount presently attained on Earth, with energy consumption at ≈2×1013 watts as of 2020. The astronomer Guillermo A. Lemarchand defined Type I as a level near contemporary terrestrial civilization with an energy capability equivalent to the solar insolation on Earth, between 1016 and 1017 watts.[9]

Type II

A civilization capable of harnessing the energy radiated by its own star—for example, by means of the successful completion of a Dyson sphere or Matrioshka brain—with energy consumption at ≈4×1033 erg/sec.[8] Lemarchand defined civilizations of this type as being capable of using and channeling the entire radiation output of its star. The energy use would then be comparable to the luminosity of the Sun, about 4×1033 erg/sec (4×1026 watts).[9]

Type III

A civilization in possession of energy at the scale of its own galaxy, with energy consumption at ≈4×1044 erg/sec.[8] Lemarchand defined civilizations of this type as having access to power comparable to the luminosity of the entire Milky Way galaxy, about 4×1044 erg/sec (4×1037 watts).[9]

Fermi explains the relative ease which an advanced civilization could colonize a galaxy:

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"Fermi grasped that any civilization with a modest amount of rocket technology and an immodest amount of imperial incentive could rapidly colonize the entire galaxy," representatives of the Search For Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Institute in Mountain View, California, wrote in a Fermi Paradox explainer. "Within a few tens of millions of years, every star system could be brought under the wing of empire. Tens of millions of years may sound like a long project, but in fact it’s quite short compared to the age of the galaxy, which is roughly a thousand times more."

Such Kardashev civilizations as Type III could tap into previously unknown laws of physics, manipulating time and space on a cosmic scale, even possibly creating new mini-universes in which to escape the death of this universe or use the forces of dark energy/anti-gravity to repel themselves and avoid the 'Big Crunch'.

Now here's the kicker. Within a cyclic universe it becomes even more likely that successive civilizations will escape the cycles and avoid the 'crunch'. In fact, given infinite cycles going back in time it should already have happened! The universe should be littered with these civilizations.

Yet we see no evidence of such entities, no patterns left behind, no remnants of ancient space-faring civilizations, no evidence of communications nothing that would suggest they ever existed. Some aspect of this theory must be wrong-headed.

Given the beginning of civilization on earth, and the speed of light.....how would we even be aware of them at this time?
Your speculation on the kind of technologies that a hypothetical alien civilization might have developed is based on your human understanding.
Maybe there's a limit that cannot be surpassed.
Maybe aliens developed and went extinct before man even emerged.
Maybe they are already here....que music...

Chaos implies that there is only so far that order can take us.

Have you concluded that the "Big Crunch" is what will happen to our universe?

Now here's a kicker...cyclic universes does not mean every universe will be like this version...
Some never develop life.....some are too unbalanced and quickly give way to the next...
Eternal return does not mean of the same.
In fact, chaos - randomness - implies that the same is never repeated.

I sense you want to believe man is unique and will never be surpassed.
Maybe...you want the universe to be made for us....and nobody else.
Were we chosen? Was it all for our sake?

Satyr wrote:

Given the beginning of civilization on earth, and the speed of light.....how would we even be aware of them at this time?

Regarding the speed of light, they are the ones who would be broadcasting their presence during/after the beginning of a new cycle so the universe should be flooded with their signals, doesn't matter when civilization began on earth.

Satyr wrote:

Your speculation on the kind of technologies that a hypothetical alien civilization might have developed is based on your human understanding.
Maybe there's a limit that cannot be surpassed.
Maybe aliens developed and went extinct before man even emerged.
Maybe they are already here....que music...

Yes, there are a huge number maybe's, of variables/filters involved in civlizations becoming space-borne. But even if we assume most do not make it, given the vast number of potential candidate planets the number who do will still be huge. It really is just about the numbers.

(Interestingly, the point about them already being here is a possible outcome given your cosmological viewpoint).

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Chaos implies that there is only so far that order can take us.

Have you concluded that the "Big Crunch" is what will happen to our universe?

Now here's a kicker...cyclic universes does not mean every universe will be like this version...
Some never develop life.....some are too unbalanced and quickly give way to the next...
Eternal return does not mean of the same.
In fact, chaos - randomness - implies that the same is never repeated.

Yes, life may only be possible within certain limits, certain constants of nature, and these are forged in the beginning. Heavier elements are also necessary... these must be synthesized somewhow. Most universes maybe duds. But with endless cycles this becomes a mute point no?

There must be a process for recycling - a crunch seems the most obvious. But whatever it is will have to regurgiatate the extant matter/energy.

There's no evidence of this increasing chaos that you talk about. Only increasing entropy... a gradual dissolution of energy into the vacuum. This was discussed in another thread, there are laws which govern this... Second Law of Thermodynamics, for example. A technologically advanced civilization might be able to arrest this through the construction of technologies like a Dyson Sphere for example. Chaos was at its greatest during the Big Bang, and is gradually diminishing over time.

Satyr wrote:

I sense you want to believe man is unique and will never be surpassed.
Maybe...you want the universe to be made for us....and nobody else.
Were we chosen? Was it all for our sake?

I do not consider man to be unique, far from it, just another link in a great chain of being. Consider our ancient ancestors who survived in the shadows of the dinosaurs. For 75 million years they persisted until an asteroid strike presented them with an opportunity. Evolution did the rest. Our ancestors had the genetic potential, the physical substrate, upon which evolution could build.

When we look at the world today what animals are in a similar position? Those living in the shadow of other creatures yet with the genetic potential to be greater should the opportunity arise?.... Mice! They have the nascent physicality of a humanoid-like race but much smaller. They may lose their hair as we did, evolve opposoble thumbs if they need to, increase their brain capacity. They will make ideal space-faring creatures due to their size. They could engineer smaller tech, with a smaller energy footprint. This is a probability should humans meet their demise. People laugh at this though because of human hubris... but we are, of course, only hairy apes ourselves.

Imagine that. Humans die out because like the dinosaurs they were simply too big (size being an indicator of primitiveness. Earlier life on earth - animal and fauna - was larger, more raw; earlier stars likewise were much bigger in scale... but shorter lasting).