The Upcoming Chaos Of The United States And The Entire World.

Satyr wrote:

stargazer wrote:

LaughingMan wrote:

I do support however the whole scale destruction of modern civilization so that an entirely new existence can come about out of the smoldering ashes.

Relevant question(assuming this mass destruction takes place): What makes you think YOU would be one of the lucky ones to survive?

Blind Faith = Judeo-Christianity
Blind Faith = Irrational Faith...Nihilistic Faith: faith that contradicts reality, or nature/past.

Faith being hope with no justification.

Justification being based on probabilities.

Probability based on patterns.

Patterns being perceptions of past, in the past.

So, he, based on a past which contradicts his projections into the future, has faith in the coming future where despite past patterns of bad performance, he will begin performing in excess of every other "survivor"....

The result?
He becomes top dawg.

Satyr, the anointed and chosen one here to deliver us all the great message of what the true reality of existence is.  KTS is the 24/7 internet sermon on the mound.

The Lord [Satyr] is my shepherd; I shall not want.

He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters.

He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name's sake.

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me.........

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Henry Quirk wrote:

"I desire the collapse of civilization"

Unless you can walk out into the wilderness right now (with only what you have on your back and in your pockets) and survive, craving apocalypse is an admission of suicide desire.

Seems to me: most folks who want BIG, violent, change ("the collapse of civilization") mostly are incapable of navigating the world (incapable of adapting), so, such folks eat a bullet or eat Drano, or, they get riled up and wanna 'change the world'.

Eatin' a bullet (or Drano) might be the more sensible route.

Even more sensible: learn to navigate the world.

First step: defend your head.

There's a whole whack of folks tryin' to pour crap into your skull...they do this with one intent...viewing you as 'resource', they want you to 'obey'.

Defend your head...sort out (as best you can) the contents of your head (some of what's in there is 'you'; a lot of what's in there [I'm bettin'] is 'them')...clear out the clutter (as best you can).


Also: 'civilization' isn't sumthin' to be cracked...it's not a 'thing'.

Civilization -- fundamentally -- is the on-going result of at least two persons agreeing NOT to kill one another, agreeing NOT to steal from each other, agreeing NOT to physically hurt one another, so that each can go off and do sumthin' (anything) else besides self-defend 24/7.

No other definition makes sense (to me).

So: when you say wanna wreck civilization (beyond expressing a suicide desire), it seems what you really say is, 'I wanna smash all the physicality that extends out from folks doin' [buildin'] things' or 'I wanna smash people'.

Sounds like envy (I want, but don't have [stuff, companions]).


Now, you can discharge yourself as you like...I just think you might find your living a more satisfying experience if you attend to 'you' (instead of 'the world' or everyone else).

Two pennies you can pocket or toss as you will.

Nobody goes into the wilderness with just the clothes on their back.  Not even the most staunch survivalist Apache warrior would desire that.

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Seems to me: most folks who want BIG, violent, change ("the collapse of civilization") mostly are incapable of navigating the world (incapable of adapting), so, such folks eat a bullet or eat Drano, or, they get riled up and wanna 'change the world'.

Or the people that cannot adapt within the domestication process of the global human zoo that tries to control all facets of people's lives with invisible forces of God, government, and morality......

How does one adapt in a cage or fenced enclosure?

I know your type.  Just another pretend ubermensch with his back pressed firmly on the ass of government with his hands stroking big brother off.

You're not a self made man. Don't even kid yourself.

Without God, government, authority, morality, law, and money you're nothing.

Just another special protected and entitled individual like the rest.

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First step: defend your head.

There's a whole whack of folks tryin' to pour crap into your skull...they do this with one intent...viewing you as 'resource', they want you to 'obey'.

Defend your head...sort out (as best you can) the contents of your head (some of what's in there is 'you'; a lot of what's in there [I'm bettin'] is 'them')...clear out the clutter (as best you can).

It's you that needs to pay attention to the patterns of global events.

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Also: 'civilization' isn't sumthin' to be cracked...it's not a 'thing'.

Civilization -- fundamentally -- is the on-going result of at least two persons agreeing NOT to kill one another, agreeing NOT to steal from each other, agreeing NOT to physically hurt one another, so that each can go off and do sumthin' (anything) else besides self-defend 24/7.

No other definition makes sense (to me)

Civilization is nothing more than a conspiracy of one group of individuals against all others.  There's one major gang that controls everything that calls itself government that doesn't like competition from anybody else.

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So: when you say wanna wreck civilization (beyond expressing a suicide desire), it seems what you really say is, 'I wanna smash all the physicality that extends out from folks doin' [buildin'] things' or 'I wanna smash people'.

Sounds like envy (I want, but don't have [stuff, companions]).

No, it's me saying that I want all of degenerate filth destroyed in all one swoop where I don't have to do much work at all other than kill off the few survivors out of said global event.

Yes, I am envious and you would be too if you were me.

Envy is nothing more than an extension of selfishness and I think we all concur that's a natural process.

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Now, you can discharge yourself as you like...I just think you might find your living a more satisfying experience if you attend to 'you' (instead of 'the world' or everyone else).

Two pennies you can pocket or toss as you will.

I'm doing just fine. Thanks for asking.

Satyr wrote:

He doesn't want to end civilization, he wants to end mankind.

It's a suicide wish, but he cannot tolerate the idea that when he kills himself others will not notice and go on living their lives.
That's why he dreams of a worldwide mass suicide....

It's self-hatred coupled with resentment for those who do not hate themselves.

Incorrect.  I want to see a new type of world flourish but in order for that to happen everything in this world must be destroyed. As they say, everything must go!  

I believe in creative destruction.

There can be no creation without destruction.

The world is a forest.  In order for a new forest to grow and set up roots the old one must be set entirely ablaze.

Your post is nonsense.  How very mentally limited and unimaginative of you.

So: you tossed the two pennies.

Not surprising (predictable).

What you (don't) make of yourself: all on you.

*shrug*

LaughingMan wrote:

Unlike you I see an exit out of this hopelessness and despair.

What hopelessness and despair?

I don't think Satyr ever said everything is woeful and there's nothing to look forward to.
Sounds like you're trying to paint him as the nihilist you are.

LaughingStock wrote:

Clueless?  Who's really clueless here?

I am clueless.

What you should do, now that you've realized this, is never, ever, pay me any attention.

Never, ever, read anything I post.

Do yourself a favor and please, please, do so.
Teach me a lesson I will not soon forget.

Recidivist wrote:

LaughingMan wrote:

Unlike you I see an exit out of this hopelessness and despair.

What hopelessness and despair?

I don't think Satyr ever said everything is woeful and there's nothing to look forward to.
Sounds like you're trying to paint him as the nihilist you are.

I think most people don't even know what nihilism is when they discuss it.

At the very least they don't realize its true potential as a form of perception.

What is it that people support around here if it not nihilism?

A civil society? Don't make me laugh......

Satyr wrote:

LaughingStock wrote:

Clueless?  Who's really clueless here?

I am clueless.

What you should do, now that you've realized this, is never, ever, pay me any attention.

Never, ever, read anything I post.

Do yourself a favor and please, please, do so.
Teach me a lesson I will not soon forget.

What's this?

Obviously some sort of ruse on your part.

Ignore you? Where would all the fun be in that?

No, I'm your number one fan baby.

What's the matter? No snappy comebacks or insults?

Throwing in the towel of resignation already?

That's not the Satyr I once knew.

Henry Quirk wrote:

So: you tossed the two pennies.

Not surprising (predictable).

What you (don't) make of yourself: all on you.

*shrug*

Can you be any more vague?

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Uh-oh......Did they see this coming?    

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Here Is The Reason For The Total Collapse In Q1 GDP

Remember back in April, when the first GDP estimate was released (a gargantuan by comparison 0.1% hence revised to a depression equivalent -2.9%), we wrote: "If It Wasn't For Obamacare, Q1 GDP Would Be Negative." Well, now that GDP is not only negative, but the worst it has been in five years, we are once again proven right. But not only because GDP was indeed negative, but because the real reason for today's epic collapse in GDP was, you guessed it, Obamacare.

Here is the chart we posted in April, showing the contribution of Obamacare, aka Healthcare Services spending. It was, in a word, an all time high.


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Turns out this number was based on.... nothing.

Because as the next chart below shows, between the second and final revision of Q1 GDP something dramatic happened: instead of contributing $40 billion to real GDP in Q1, Obamacare magically ended up subtracting $6.4 billion from GDP. This, in turn, resulted in a collapse in Personal Consumption Expenditures as a percentage of GDP to just 0.7%, the lowest since 2009!

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Don't worry thought: this is actually great news! Because the brilliant propaganda minds at the Dept of Commerce figured out something banks also realized with the stub "kitchen sink" quarter in November 2008. Namely, since Q1 is a total loss in GDP terms, let's just remove Obamacare spending as a contributor to Q1 GDP and just shove it in Q2.

Stated otherwise, some $40 billion in PCE that was supposed to boost Q1 GDP will now be added to Q2-Q4.

And now, we all await as the US department of truth says, with a straight face, that in Q2 the US GDP "grew" by over 5% (no really: you'll see).

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They just don't know how to make cars or vehicles in America anymore.......

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Here Are The 28.5 Million Cars Recalled By GM In The First Half Of 2014

One could say things about what is now without doubt the biggest company joke in the history of the US - maybe global - automotive sector, putting even East Germany's infamous Trabant to shame.

Things like following the just announced latest recall of another 7.6 million cars across models from 1997 to 2014, and another 800K+ cars thrown in just because, GM has recalled more cars in the first 6 months of 2014 than it has sold in all of 2011, 2012 and 2013. Which incidentally would be true as the chart below shows.

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Things like it took GM over a decade to that these latest recalls affecting cars made in the 20th century resulted in "seven crashes, eight injuries and three fatalities."

Things like GM expecting "to take a charge of up to approximately $1.2 billion in the second quarter for the cost of recall-related repairs announced in the quarter. This amount includes a previously disclosed $700 million charge for recalls already announced during the quarter." Of course, it goes without saying that this now weekly, forget monthly, charge is clearly non-recurring, and one-time, and those 160 hedge funds who are long GM stock are praying isn't allowed to enter Non-GAAP EPS as suddenly they will be left holding a stock that has far less value.

Things like why on earth is anyone still buying the absolute garbage this company still makes, when even it now has admitted it will risk customer lives on a grand scale if it allows it to save some shareholder value.

Things like it may get nastier for GM now that moments ago, finally and long overdue, the Orange County DA filed a civil lawsuit against GM for "intentionally concealing defects" and putting human lives at risk in order to boost profits.

Things like we can't wait for how many million cars GM recalls next week.

We won't say any of those things. Instead we will merely show a table laying out all the 28,470,653 cars GM has recalled in the first half of 2014: a run rate which at this rate will mean GM may recall more cars by the end of 2014 than it has made since emerging from bankruptcy!

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Well, there goes my travel reservations for Madrid or Barcelona.

Then again......   

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Spain Celebrates The "End Of The Recession" With 54% Youth Unemployment, Highest Since January

When we were greeted by the latest batch of optimistic Spanish data this morning, such as the following:

   Spain June Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs 52.9 in May; Est. 53
   Guindos Says Spain Growth Accelerating to Rates Close to 1.5%
   And this from the Economist: "With recession over and jobs being created, Spain's economic recovery is surprisingly strong"

we thought, we would see some actual "end of recession" signals when it came to the underlying economy, like for example: jobs actually being created. Alas no. According to the just released European employment data for May, total Spain unemployment remained unchanged in May at 25.1%, while youth unemployment has actually risen to 54.0% - the highest since January!

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That's ok though: aside from the facts, once is welcome to "believe" whatever headlines one wants to believe.

And speaking of "recovery", here is what unemployment across Europe looked like as of May.

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You don't say?       

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The Next Global Meltdown Is Baked In: Connecting The Dots Between Oil, Debt, Interest Rates And Risk

The bottom line is the Fed can only keep the machine duct-taped together by suppressing the market's pricing of risk.

One of the Grand Narratives of our era is the substitution of debt for income: as earned income and disposable income have stagnated for 40 years, the gap between the rising cost of living and stagnant household income has been filled by borrowed money.

Money has been borrowed to replace income everywhere: consumers have borrowed money to buy things they otherwise couldn't afford, students have borrowed over $1 trillion to attend college, governments have borrowed money to fund wars and social spending, corporations have borrowed money to buy back their own shares, pushing stock prices higher.

There's one little problem with debt: interest must be paid on debt. Let's focus for a second on the difference between cash income and borrowing money. Cash doesn't cost money to maintain; debt does. In a functioning economy (as opposed to the dysfunctional mess we have now), cash would earn income from interest paid by borrowers.

If cash income is saved, the cash can buy stuff without debt or interest payments. That is a powerful advantage over debt.

How powerful is the advantage of cash over debt? It's literally life-changing. Take a look at your credit card statements, which now include an estimate of interest you will pay and how long it will take to pay off the balance at a given monthly payment.

Those making minimal payments will end up paying 100% or more of the balance due in interest.
The phenomenally high accrued costs of interest is true of mortgages, student loans, auto loans, corporate debt and government debt: eventually, current spending is crimped as more and more net income is devoted to paying interest.

There are two words for what happens when real income declines and interest payments rise: impoverishment and insolvency. This dynamic is scale-invariant, meaning it works the same for individuals, households, enterprises and governments.

Let's connect the rising cost of oil to debt. As we all know, oil matters because it's the foundation of our economy, and the cost of oil is built into virtually every sector in some way. For example, look at how the the cost of food rises and declines in lockstep with the cost of oil:

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Despite the substitution of cheaper natural gas for oil, we use a lot of oil.

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While the recent increase of 3+ million barrels a day in domestic production is welcome on many fronts (more jobs, more money kept at home, reduced dependence on foreign suppliers, etc.), the U.S. still needs to import crude oil.

U.S. Imports by Country of Origin (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

The rising cost of oil acts as an economy-wide tax. Everything that uses oil in its production or transport rises in price without offering consumers any more value than it did at much lower prices.

Look at the impact on food prices as oil rose from $20/barrel in 2002 to $140/barrel in 2008. While government statisticians adjust the consumer price index (CPI) based on hedonics (as the quality of things goes up, the price is adjusted accordingly) and substitution (people buy chicken instead of steak, etc.), the reality is, as one heckler put it, "We don't eat iPads:" that is, all the stuff that is hedonically adjusted (tech goodies, etc.) is non-essential.

The Status Quo has compensated for the relentless rise in the systemic oil "tax" by making debt cheaper to service. The Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) has two purposes:

1. Channel immense sums of free money to the too big to fail banks by relieving them of the onerous requirement of paying interest on deposits while giving them unlimited access to nearly-free money they can lend out at huge spreads. (This is crony-capitalism writ large. The winners were picked by the Fed and the rest of us are the losers. Yea for the godlike Fed, our modern-day Mammon.)

2. To keep consumption alive as income declined and the oil tax eroded household disposable income, the Fed made borrowing cheaper.

Unfortunately for the godlike deities residing in the Fed, zero-interest rates trigger malinvestments, which are inherently risky. When unqualified borrowers borrow a ton of money--for example, a student with no assets or income, or a poor credit risk household assumes an FHA mortgage, or a corporation sells junk-rated bonds-- the risk of default is intrinsically higher than debt taken on by qualified borrowers.

This poses a systemic problem for the Fed: The Fed needs to enable more borrowing by the uncreditworthy to keep consumption growing and bank profits flowing, yet the inevitable result of such credit expansion is a massive expansion of systemic risk.

The more debt that is taken on by marginal borrowers--where marginal is defined as unable to weather any shock or decline to their financial position or income--the more risk piles up in the system.

The analogy is a forest where the deadwood is never allowed to burn: The Yellowstone Analogy and The Crisis of Neoliberal Capitalism (May 18, 2009). The net result of rising systemic risk is a massive conflagration that burns off off the accumulated risk and bad debt.

Such a fire sweeping through the mountains of risky debt piled up in the American financial system would bring down the entire Status Quo. So what's a godlike Federal Reserve to do when it can no longer lower interest rates?

Answer: it suppresses visible risk by manipulating the stock market to reflect complacency.
"Old" VIX Plunges To Record Low (Zero Hedge)


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Does a record low measure of risk reflect the systemic risk of default and a decline in consumption, or is it merely a reflection of the herd's boundless faith in the godlike powers of the Fed to suppress risk even as Fed policies pile risk ever higher?

The bottom line is the Fed can only keep the machine duct-taped together by suppressing the market's pricing of risk. Suppressing the market's ability to price risk is throwing common-sense fiscal caution to the winds; when risk arises from its drugged slumber despite the Fed's best efforts to eliminate it, we will all reap what the Fed has sown.

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Is there a doctor in the house?  We need to get this baby on life support stat!

Somebody call an ambulance over here!


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Equities Spike To Record Highs As US Macro Hits 2-Month Lows


Treasury yields are up 1-2bps; the USD is flat; gold and silver are up modestly; but stocks are screaming higher to all-time highs in the Trannies and S&P. All of this is occurring as PMI and ISM missed expectations this morning and the US Macro Surprise index in the US (worst of all nations year to date) is at 2-month lows. What's behind it? FOMO, POMO, YOLO? All we can say is the S&P has never been this far above the Fed balance sheet (over 50 points rich) since QE began.

Equities are notably rich to Fed balance sheet and US macro is not supportive

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As the disconnect grows...


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Well, looks like the international markets will be dumping a lot of dollars in the near future.

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Anti-Dollar Alliance Prepares Launch Of BRICS Bank



Three months ago we discussed in detail the growing anti-dollar hegemony alliances that were building across the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Their efforts at the time, to create a structure that would serve as an alternative to the IMF and the World Bank (which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU), appear to be nearing completion. As AP reports, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff and Russia's Vladimir Putin have discussed the creation of a development bank to promote growth across the BRICS and hope to produce an agreement on the proposed institution at this week's BRICS Summit.

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Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff and Russia's Vladimir Putin have discussed the creation of a development bank to promote growth in Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa.



Rousseff received Putin in the presidential palace in Brasilia on Monday, a day before leaders of the five emerging BRICS nations meet in the northeastern city of Fortaleza.



Rousseff told reporters the bank would top the summit's agenda, adding she hoped the event would produce an agreement on the proposed institution.



She said the five countries "are among the largest in the world and cannot content themselves in the middle of the 21st century with any kind of dependency."

Brazil and Russia also signed bilateral accords on air defense, gas and education

They seem serious:


   *BRICS DEVELOPMENT BANK KEY TO FOSTER GROWTH IN GROUP: BORGES
   *BRICS BANK AT 1ST TO FINANCE EXCLUSIVELY INFRASTRUCTURE:BORGES
   *RUSSIA'S PUTIN SAYS COOPERATION WITH CHINA IS GROWING
   *PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA TO PROMOTE CURRENCY SWAP WITH CHINA: XINHUA


As we concluded previously, as RBTH reports, it seems the BRICS are not slowing down efforts to create their own IMF-alternative...

   

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The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU. A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank, will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at Large Vadim Lukov has said.

   

   Brazil has already drafted a charter for the BRICS Development Bank, while Russia is drawing up intergovernmental agreements on setting the bank up, he added.

   

   In addition, the BRICS countries have already agreed on the amount of authorized capital for the new institutions: $100 billion each. "Talks are under way on the distribution of the initial capital of $50 billion between the partners and on the location for the headquarters of the bank. Each of the BRICS countries has expressed a considerable interest in having the headquarters on its territory," Lukov said.

   

   It is expected that contributions to the currency reserve pool will be as follows: China, $41 billion; Brazil, India, and Russia, $18 billion each; and South Africa, $5 billion. The amount of the contributions reflects the size of the countries' economies.

   

   ...

   

   The creation of the BRICS Development Bank has a political significance too, since it allows its member states to promote their interests abroad. "It is a political move that can highlight the strengthening positions of countries whose opinion is frequently ignored by their developed American and European colleagues. The stronger this union and its positions on the world arena are, the easier it will be for its members to protect their own interests," points out Natalya Samoilova, head of research at the investment company Golden Hills-Kapital AM.

Perhaps the following sums it all up perfectly...

   

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Economists warn the IMF's legitimacy is at stake, and they say U.S. standing abroad is being eroded.

   

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If the current trend continues, soon the dollar will be abandoned by most of the significant global economies and it will be kicked out of the global trade finance. Washington's bullying will make even former American allies choose the anti-dollar alliance instead of the existing dollar-based monetary system. The point of no return for the dollar may be much closer than it is generally thought. In fact, the greenback may have already past its point of no return on its way to irrelevance.

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Looks like I am going to need a horse and buggy eventually.

How does that old Arab proverb go again? "My father rode a camel and my son travels by plane.  My son's son with travel ride by camel once more."

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BP's Latest Estimate Says World's Oil Will Last 53.3 Years


According to BP, drivers whose vehicles rely on burning oil have a little more than a half-century to find alternate sources of energy. Or walk.

BP’s annual report on proved global oil reserves says that as of the end of 2013, Earth has nearly 1.688 trillion barrels of crude, which will last 53.3 years at current rates of extraction. This figure is 1.1 percent higher than that of the previous year. In fact, during the past 10 years proven reserves have risen by 27 percent, or more than 350 billion barrels.

The increased amount of oil in the report include 900 million barrels detected in Russia and 800 million barrels in Venezuela. OPEC nations continue to lead the world by having a large majority of the planet’s reserves, or 71.9 percent.

As for the United States, which lately has been ramping up oil extraction through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, BP says its proven oil reserves are 44.2 billion barrels, 26 percent higher than in BP’s previous report. This is more than reported most recently by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which had raised its own estimate by 15 percent to 33.4 billion barrels.

That means shale-oil extraction enterprises in the United States have more to offer than many first believed. The sources include the Bakken formation spanning Canadian and U.S. territory in the West, the Eagle Ford formation in East Texas and the super-rich Permian Basin in West Texas, which alon holds 75 billion barrels of recoverable fossil fuels.

And though Eagle Ford and Bakken seem to hold far less oil, EOG Resources, which has been working Eagle Ford, has increased its estimates of the site’s reserves. The Motley Fool reports that its latest estimate of recoverable fuel is 3.2 billion barrels, more than the nearly 1 billion barrels expected in 2010.


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Nevertheless, BP is cautious in defining oil reserves. At the top of an introductory web page on the subject, the company states baldly: “Nobody knows or can know how much oil exists under the earth's surface or how much it will be possible to produce in the future.”

And while the amount of proven oil reserves, and their extraction, are rising each year, so is concern about how their recovery. Not only do new extraction methods use huge amounts of energy to get even more energy, particularly from shale, they also use chemicals and metals that many fear poison nearby soil and groundwater, and generate huge amounts of toxic wastewater.

Such methods are helping the United States, for example, to achieve energy independence. But that won’t apply to China, a huge customer for fossil fuels. BP says Asia-Pacific oil reserves will last only 14 years at current rates. That means China will have to keep importing oil, putting further strain on global reserves.

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Are you Liquid Ocelot, Joker?